• 0 Posts
  • 18 Comments
Joined 5 days ago
Cake day: February 19th, 2025
  • Tuukka R@sopuli.xyztoUkraine@sopuli.xyz•The total combat losses of the enemy from 24.02.22 to 24.02.25
    2·
    3 hours ago

    My understanding is that the casualty numbers only include severe casualties - that they are mostly unhealable. Also, hasn’t there already been more severely injured Russian soldiers than there are currently Russian soldiers serving on the front? If a significant share of the crippled really were sent back into action, we would see a LOT of them. The ones on crutches seem to be something of a rare case, based on how they are being talked about by the Ukrainian soldiers.

    But yeah, it’s annoying that the “Russian losses” data is so ambiguously defined. I wish there was something of an official list visible for what injury gets you in that statistic and what doesn’t. Still: The earlier rate of roughly 1000 to 1300 per day was enough to make proper training impossible. We know that the Russia had to send everyone more or less immediately to the front. And that the size of Russian forces on the front apparently has not significantly grown. So, the recruitment capacity is such that it can roughly keep balance at a loss rate of 1000 to 1300 ambiguously defined casualties per day. And now the number was about 40-50 % over that for several months.

    I’ve been pondering this number and have come to the conclusion that the official Ukrainian statistic most likely tells the number of unrecoverable losses of the Russian armed forces. But, this is just a somewhat-educated guess, based on an understanding that the 1000 to 1300 per day were enough to keep the Russian army from developing a reserve.

  • Tuukka R@sopuli.xyztoUkraine@sopuli.xyz•Trudeau presses Trump on Ukraine peace deal ahead of Kyiv summit
    3·
    3 hours ago

    What a crazy situation we are in! It looks like we’ll get out of this reasonably fine, but there is still a risk that Ukraine will be pressured by the west into a peace deal where they don’t get Crimea back. (Donetsk and Luhansk… I don’t think they care much for those) If Ukraine doesn’t get Crimea back, I don’t understand why the Russia would not attack Ukraine again in a couple of years.

    Trudeau probably won’t affect Trump directly, but knowing about his call affects other western leaders. And the US populace as well.

  • Tuukka R@sopuli.xyztoUkraine@sopuli.xyz•The total combat losses of the enemy from 24.02.22 to 24.02.25
    2·
    4 hours ago

    Putin’s information bubble is a very interesting phenomenon. He never uses Internet. For anything. Ever. So, all OSINT goes completely missing on him.

    His aides probably do print blog texts off the Internet for him to read in paper format, but of course those can be hand-picked and even altered to suit the aide’s needs. Atop that, Putin puts a high emphasis on trustworthiness when choosing aides. Skill is much less important than loyalty. And it looks very much like the definition of trustworthiness is that the aide’s reports show roughly the same data as other aides’ reports. The current aides give him strongly falsified reports and anyone writing something contradictory gets sacked.

    This means, Putin’s understanding of many situations is extremely skewed, because he only receives information through his aides and his country’s official news. It is likely that he is being told highly inflated numbers for Ukrainian losses. Or, I’d be very surprised if the numbers weren’t inflated at all, and the only question is to what extent they are exaggerated.

    If his understanding of the relative losses is strongly skewed, the strategy you’re guessing makes sense.

  • Tuukka R@sopuli.xyztoUkraine@sopuli.xyz•The total combat losses of the enemy from 24.02.22 to 24.02.25
    5·
    4 hours ago

    Let’s hope so. The Russia has a recruitment capacity of 25 000 to 35 000 roaches per month. That makes roughly 1000 per day. That’s the amount that keeps the Russia from being able to train any new soldiers. (if the losses are smaller than the recruitment capacity, a reserve can eventually be built and trained. If they are bigger, all recruits go almost immediately to front without useful training)

    Everything going above that number means the Russian army decreasing in size. The 1800 per day meant that the size of their military was decreasing by 800 roaches per day. I’d like to see it return to those numbers.

    But also, Putin had high hopes regarding Trump. Now it looks like those hopes have been possibly in vain, because it looks plausible that Europe will remain supporting Ukraine even if USA was to completely stop all support. As long as the political situation looked promising for the Russia’s ambitions, it made sense throwing much more soldiers to the meat grinder than can be replaced: if the war was to end very soon, the losses would not pose any danger fire the Russia, but every km² they have occupied by that point is a km² of the Russia.

    Now that it looks like the war will definitely continue for several months still, Putin cannot afford to let his army diminish in size. What’s interesting is that everything over 35 000 per month (or even over just 25 000?) has been permanent losses from the Russian military capacity. That’s been a huge change in the last couple of months!

  • Tuukka R@sopuli.xyztoAsk Lemmy@lemmy.world•Do you know anyone in real life that uses Lemmy?
    2·
    1 day ago

    Put your oven to heat up to maybe 175 degrees? Take some flour and sugar and salt and, I guess, baking powder? Mix in correct proportions, add enough of some form of edible fat and a suitable amount of a liquid safe for eating. Mix well. Pour in forms.

    Put the forms on a baking tray and into the oven. If you’re very lucky and you remembered to add the unlisted ingredients in correct amounts, you now have something cupcake-like. Put some toppings on.

    Yoghurt.