Загальні бойові втрати противника з 24.02.22 по 24.02.25 (орієнтовно)
#NOMERCY #stoprussia
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I know I’m biased, and always looking for signs that it’s going bad for Russia.
But the recent lower personnel losses, seems to me like the Russians are losing steam lately.Let’s hope so. The Russia has a recruitment capacity of 25 000 to 35 000 roaches per month. That makes roughly 1000 per day. That’s the amount that keeps the Russia from being able to train any new soldiers. (if the losses are smaller than the recruitment capacity, a reserve can eventually be built and trained. If they are bigger, all recruits go almost immediately to front without useful training)
Everything going above that number means the Russian army decreasing in size. The 1800 per day meant that the size of their military was decreasing by 800 roaches per day. I’d like to see it return to those numbers.
But also, Putin had high hopes regarding Trump. Now it looks like those hopes have been possibly in vain, because it looks plausible that Europe will remain supporting Ukraine even if USA was to completely stop all support. As long as the political situation looked promising for the Russia’s ambitions, it made sense throwing much more soldiers to the meat grinder than can be replaced: if the war was to end very soon, the losses would not pose any danger fire the Russia, but every km² they have occupied by that point is a km² of the Russia.
Now that it looks like the war will definitely continue for several months still, Putin cannot afford to let his army diminish in size. What’s interesting is that everything over 35 000 per month (or even over just 25 000?) has been permanent losses from the Russian military capacity. That’s been a huge change in the last couple of months!
Careful about those numbers. Russia seems to be recruiting around 1000/day according to various western sources. However the personal numbers we are seeing above are casualties, not deaths. If you break a leg you are a causality but that let will heal and so in a couple months are can fight again, if you are then break an arm that is another casualty and you are on the list above again.
The above is important because we have seen many reports of Russia sending injured soldiers on “meat attacks” so there much be some double counting and we don’t know how much.
My understanding is that the casualty numbers only include severe casualties - that they are mostly unhealable. Also, hasn’t there already been more severely injured Russian soldiers than there are currently Russian soldiers serving on the front? If a significant share of the crippled really were sent back into action, we would see a LOT of them. The ones on crutches seem to be something of a rare case, based on how they are being talked about by the Ukrainian soldiers.
But yeah, it’s annoying that the “Russian losses” data is so ambiguously defined. I wish there was something of an official list visible for what injury gets you in that statistic and what doesn’t. Still: The earlier rate of roughly 1000 to 1300 per day was enough to make proper training impossible. We know that the Russia had to send everyone more or less immediately to the front. And that the size of Russian forces on the front apparently has not significantly grown. So, the recruitment capacity is such that it can roughly keep balance at a loss rate of 1000 to 1300 ambiguously defined casualties per day. And now the number was about 40-50 % over that for several months.
I’ve been pondering this number and have come to the conclusion that the official Ukrainian statistic most likely tells the number of unrecoverable losses of the Russian armed forces. But, this is just a somewhat-educated guess, based on an understanding that the 1000 to 1300 per day were enough to keep the Russian army from developing a reserve.
Let pootin become famous as the guy who united and strengthened the EU and initiated Ukraines membership in the core of the European Defense Army. And he could also become famous for being the guy who killed Pootin!
Thanks, that’s very interesting.
Maybe Russia also thought that pushing hard would grind down the Ukrainian army, making it impossible for Ukraine to defend themselves.
All in all, I’m impressed that Ukraine has been able to withstand the insane pressure from Russia.Putin’s information bubble is a very interesting phenomenon. He never uses Internet. For anything. Ever. So, all OSINT goes completely missing on him.
His aides probably do print blog texts off the Internet for him to read in paper format, but of course those can be hand-picked and even altered to suit the aide’s needs. Atop that, Putin puts a high emphasis on trustworthiness when choosing aides. Skill is much less important than loyalty. And it looks very much like the definition of trustworthiness is that the aide’s reports show roughly the same data as other aides’ reports. The current aides give him strongly falsified reports and anyone writing something contradictory gets sacked.
This means, Putin’s understanding of many situations is extremely skewed, because he only receives information through his aides and his country’s official news. It is likely that he is being told highly inflated numbers for Ukrainian losses. Or, I’d be very surprised if the numbers weren’t inflated at all, and the only question is to what extent they are exaggerated.
If his understanding of the relative losses is strongly skewed, the strategy you’re guessing makes sense.
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