Just how useful is a forecast in a knife-edge election like this one, anyway? Even the insight that it could go either way is useful, Silver argues. “One potential advantage of having a forecast that says … it’s 50/50, is that people should be making their contingency plans, like, right away. It doesn’t mean you need [to stockpile] ammo and peanut butter” – that giggle again – “but it means, you know: what’s your strategy to protect American institutions in the event of a Trump second term? Or, in 2028 [or] 2032, a Trump-like Republican who maybe is more effective than Trump? If I were a liberal donor, for example, I would want to begin funding now … to protect institutions in that eventuality, instead of giving another $100,000 to Kamala Harris, who has more money than she needs.”

And while he fears a Trump win – “There were a lot of guardrails in place last time that prevented complete and utter disaster, but those guardrails have been weakened, right?” – he warns against painting it as an existential threat to democracy, at least as a political strategy. “The notion of basically holding voters hostage in that sense is very unappealing … Biden was like: ‘OK, sure, I may be running for president until I’m 86 and can barely form a complete sentence, but if you don’t vote for me, the country gets it’ – that’s a very unappealing message to swing voters … whereas Harris brings more joyfulness and is obviously a very talented woman”. He worries, though, that she has “retained too many of the Biden people who thought it was a good idea to keep running [him]. I guess she kind of had to.”

  • Kit@lemmy.blahaj.zone
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    2 months ago

    Friendly reminder for my trans bros and sisters, please get your passport squared away and start hoarding HRT in case shit hits the fan.

        • Cryophilia@lemmy.world
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          2 months ago

          California spends more on its homeless than any other state. It’s a huge part of our annual budget.

      • Telodzrum@lemmy.world
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        2 months ago

        lol no you won’t

        If things go that bad, no state is standing up to the power of the federal government.

        • Cryophilia@lemmy.world
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          2 months ago

          We do it all the time. We are right now telling the Federal Government that we refuse to prosecute illegal immigrants. Just a few decades ago we did it with gay marriage.

      • Kit@lemmy.blahaj.zone
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        2 months ago

        Where are you going to go? It seems difficult to relocate to another country without dual citizenship

        • kittenzrulz123@lemmy.blahaj.zone
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          2 months ago

          Tbh a country that in many ways is significantly worse, but they have free healthcare and a government too unstable to ban anything (also they have “right of return”). That country is Israel, I wish I had another option yet sadly it’s my only option.

          • argarath@lemmy.world
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            2 months ago

            Israel is a much worse place for trans people, with a conservative government that is much more empowered than the USA and much more connected to religions that wasn’t too annihilate trans people and queer people, who’s going through their fascist faze and have been openly harassing minorities within their land and outside too. Don’t go to Israel. If you want some time to get your things ready to leave for a country like Norway or Holland, California is much much better than pretty much any other state in the USA, you might not even need to leave the US by just staying in California tbh, but if you really want to leave the Nordic countries have been doing really well. France is being attacked by fascists RN but the people are fighting back fiercely and minimizing all the real damage, they are another good option. Switzerland seems to be another good option, but I don’t know much about it, but I do have a gay friend that is moving there to live with his boyfriend and he is leaving the USA, so it seems like a good option too

              • argarath@lemmy.world
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                2 months ago

                That’s why I suggested going to California first, there you can have enough time to get yourself a citizenship for a country that is actually better for you

                  • argarath@lemmy.world
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                    2 months ago

                    California is a huge state, there are cheaper areas to live in, and new York isn’t in that much of a risk of suddenly prosecuting queer people, even in a trump government. California is safer, yes, but New York isn’t the boonies of Florida or Texas. If you don’t mind, what are you afraid of in new york that you think you’ll be safer in Israel of all places?

          • corsicanguppy@lemmy.ca
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            2 months ago

            Can you come to Canada as a refugee from a regime that will oppress you[1]? We have a separate track for that and it’s (supposed to be, if you believe the rabid babbling from our hillbilly kings) much easier and faster.

            1. yeah, either one.