Cross-posted from: https://feddit.de/post/8866314
In late January, the International Monetary Fund more than doubled its forecast for the pace of the country’s economic growth this year, raising it from 1.1% in October to 2.6%.
Despite this, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva sees more trouble ahead for the country of roughly 145 million.
“What it tells us is that this is a war economy in which the state — which let’s remember, had a very sizeable buffer, built over many years of fiscal discipline — is investing in this war economy. If you look at Russia, today, production goes up, [for the] military, [and] consumption goes down. And that is pretty much what the Soviet Union used to look like. High level of production, low level of consumption.”
@0x815 @SamsonSeinfelder I agree. I see no prospect of a sudden collapse in Russia, just a glacially slow deepening of cracks that are already visible. I don’t see any chance that the Russian population will ‘rise up’ and change things. The Russian mentality is deeply rooted in stoicism, and the inevitability of suffering. I see one possible future in which Russia becomes a ‘slavic’ version of North Korea, but that is only one possible future. Any change which does take place will be very slow.
Wagner happened. It failed, but it is the kind of even, which could change Russia very quickly. Due to sanctions and massive losses in Ukraine the bases for big changes is being laid.