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Joined 1 year ago
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Cake day: September 12th, 2023

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  • Article forgets to discuss how a removal of sanctions due to withdrawing would help alleviate the economic crisis.

    That assumes sanctions would be quickly removed. Given the massive list of war crimes Russia has committed in UA I sincerely doubt many in the West are lifting sanctions before the offenders are punished - something Putin is unlikely to agree to.

    It is a catch22 because that gives him limited reasons to withdraw. Russia are very much in “crash through or crash” mode now because they see no way out and still hope the west will withdraw support.

    To answeryour question. Withdrawal of sanctions will remove some pressure points - improved revenue by being able directly sell fossil fuels and thus getting a higher price per barrel; ability to buy critical components such as aviation parts and ICs. Most importantly China will be able to buy significant major assets and invest (they’re avoiding overt help to avoid sanctions themselves)

    That will take significant time to make a difference though, the decimation of the workforce will still be an issue. Russia will become a Chinese serf regardless of whether they retain Ukrainian land or withdraw completely. Their economy is now in such a bad state their only hope is a rescue by China. One which will be priced at firesale “cents on the dollar” prices





  • Well, I’m with you on Putin can go get fucked. But I think you’re misinformed on the “petrodollar empowering Putin”.

    The dominance of the US dollar as the currency for settlement of international crude oil contracts advantages predominantly the US and secondarily countries with strong currencies in open exchange with the USD. It disadvantages weaker currencies and those with poorer trade terms with the US such as Venezuela and Russia now the latter has been cut off from the western banking system.

    Putin being forced to trade his crude in non dollar denominated contracts is one of the (several) reasons the sale price of muscovy crude is now significantly lower than the equivalent from other countries. (TL;DR the sanctions are working).

    China has long been lobbying unsuccessfully to break the petrodollar/USD as world reserve currency and failed so far.

    The major US banks are just agents of a (very successful) US foreign policy post WW2. They are indeed evil, but not for this reason





  • To suspend Hungary (your first point) legally requires unanimity of all EU countries aside from the one to be censured. (Article7)

    Unfortunately Slovakia has recently elected a pro putin govt who will now block any attempt to deal with Orban.

    There was a short window between the end of the Polish far right PiS being in power and Slovakia changing leadership when it could have been done. Unsurprisingly Orban was very compliant during that period and as soon as he regained an ally is back to his old tricks.

    There is no legal way to do what you suggest

    Edit, missed a word


  • I can’t work out if this is well intentioned ignorance or trolling, so I’ll give it the benefit of the doubt and a serious answer.

    The first point is there are a huge number of threats to privacy and your online and data security from connecting to the internet even in western countries.

    VPNs are not just for protection from govt abuse, in fact their efficacy there is far lower than for several other use cases.

    If you’re in the US (for example) and with one of the biggest ISPs then every DNS request being made is (was anyway, I assume still is) logged and your internet usage is then sold off to data brokers to profile you.

    So yeah, dont trust your ISP, and if you’re dealing with a VPN that wants all that info then find a better one (proton or mullvad for exampke, you can pay with monero or bitcoin or even cash by snail mail)







  • There’s a simple reason the assets haven’t been seized, we have a legal system in Western Europe. There needs to be a legal basis for seizure of assets and a legal process that allows the on-payment to Ukraine.

    It is blatantly fair and just that the assets should be handed to Ukraine, but if we don’t carefully follow our legal principals principles then courts will unfortunately overturn the attempt.

    It’s easy to say “Russia has broken international law” it’s a tougher task proving it and working it through the courts then paying those damages to Ukraine. It needs to be done though.

    The only alternative to legal judgement and payment via that judgement is for laws mandating the asset seizure to be passed by the governments of the countries where the assets are held.

    The problem with that route is many constitutions forbid or severely restrict the ability of a government to seize assets.

    Those restrictions are there for a reason, it curbs the ability of nascent dictators (Orban et al) to seize private property on a whim or to punish enemies

    TL;DR freezing assets has a clear and well established precedent which thus has been done. Seizing assets however, while ever we have rule of law is rightly constrained