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Joined 1 year ago
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Cake day: June 23rd, 2023

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  • Sanctions have not been effective - AQAH has been sanctioned since 2007, and only the direct military threat on Iranian planes bringing cash seems to be having the desired impact.

    The quiet part is here in the details - Iran is Hezbollah’s financier - confirming what everyone has known for decades. AQAH is unlicensed, yet they do business with AQAH because they know that someone (Iran) will guarantee AQAH’s debts. More importantly, it shows a path forward for Lebanon - to simply enforce their existing sovereignty and laws - punishing banks that do business with unlicensed banks.









  • Small strikes against any IRGC personnel stationed outside Iran - they’re fair game and on the table. We’re already seeing this with the strikes on Damascus and throughout Lebanon.

    Also - based on the saber rattling and talking heads, it sounds like there are likely to be three potential targets: the dams, which would cause massive domestic economic damage to Iran; the oil facilities, which would cause massive economic damage to the Iranian regime; finally, known nuclear sites, which are in line with Israeli rhetoric about preventing Iranian nuclear ambitions.

    I think cooler heads will prevail and the dams won’t be targeted, and without a regional coalition committed to a ground invasion with a goal of regime change, attacking the nuclear facilities won’t have the strategic impact that’s desired. Which leaves the oil refineries - there’s a natural bottleneck for Iranian oil production/export so there’s a short list of physical areas that need to be attacked for it to be effective.

    Thinking on it further, IRGC headquarters should also be on the table. I don’t think it’s likely, but if it succeeds (and it’s likely to succeed - especially with direct US support) then it’s a huge win. But even if it does succeed I don’t see it leading to real regime change in Iran, so without that strategic impact it’s far less likely.