His model actually accounts for whether polls were taken before or after an event, and raises and lowers their impact and error margin based on that. Right up to the debate, his model was giving Kamala a <30% chance and it’s only the inclusion of new polls since the debate that have moved her to 50%.
Oh my god those loop earplugs have been a lifesaver! Started using them about a year ago. Can’t recommend them enough for anyone else suffering
I have a condition called misophonia. Just kill me instead. Please.
In this particular case, OP said none of the others met their needs. I would like to know what new functionality this one has to know if it’s something I’m interested in or not. It’s not a critique - it’s helping me understand if I want to check it out or not.
Escape from Tarkov. Yeah, I’ll be dead shortly.
I bought the official dock and have struggled a bit with it. It sometimes doesn’t recognize my TV and has other connectivity issues that seem to only be solved by repeatedly restarting it. I had an extra HooToo adapter lying around at work and holy crap that thing is such an awesome adapter for cheap that connects to the TV or my monitors and peripherals so easy and I’ve never had issues.
The insurance is based on the cost to rebuild the home, which has also drastically gone up, so it makes sense that it has risen too
Vast majority don’t, but I found after awhile that my favorite does (Ale8). That was on me - it’s clearly marked.
I mean, that makes me even more skeptical. 108 volunteers tracked for that many sparesely populated vectors is 100% going to have hundreds of false positives just due to statistical noise.
I appreciate your original question and tact through these follow ups. I’m also having trouble finding primary sources in my quick search.
I grew up one county away from Middletown Ohio. It’s nothing like the other Appalachian counties I’ve been in. It’s like a very rural suburb of Cincinnati. You’re 5~10 miles from a crap ton of big city amenities. I went there all the time for sports, and they came to my much more urban high school to play too. Yes, it’s got some very large rural areas but it’s not geographically isolated the way the rest of Appalachia is and has parts of it that are very suburban (vs truly rural).
Not a bad video game, but I thought I had zero chance of liking it. I bought American Truck Simulator for $2 and it’s such a good zone out video with something (radio/e-book/etc) on in the background. When I’m too exhausted to think, but want to be slightly more engaged than just throwing something on TV, it’s now my go to right now. I bought it on the most recent steam summer sale and have 20 hours into already. All of it on the Steam Deck.
538 also is running a brand new model by a new hire as when they let Nate Silver go, he kept the IP to the model that made them famous. Nate Silver just published yesterday a pretty detail list of reasons why you shouldn’t trust the new model they developed. The original model has Biden at a 28% chance of winning, trending down - the 28% is assuming either polling error or that he does something to change the tide, both of which seem less likely than in the past so the model is probably optimistic.
I’m in management. I couldn’t even give all my direct reports enough time if I tried to consolidate it down to one day, let alone partners, vendors, stakeholders, etc. Then add in all the project meetings, working sessions, etc …
These are extremely old polling dates, and don’t reflect changes since
As much as I get this sentiment, I chose my profession in part because I like learning and my area requires learning new stuff all the time to stay relevant. The learning part of work is the part I enjoy and look forward to.
Well more from being in the air than just the scanner I believe!
As a spouse of someone who suffers from ARFID, I just wanted to pass along that there are those out there who understand the extreme suffering it can cause and recognize that the condition is not a choice you are making. She went most of her life undiagnosed and getting the diagnosis was so incredibly validating because it showed what she was experiencing was beyond her control. We wish you the best.
There’s no guarantee you can draw a circle through the bottom of the four legs of a table (opposite legs can be off in the same direction). Also, most floors are not perfectly flat, therefore you can’t assume the floor is at one elevation.