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Cake day: July 1st, 2023

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  • You do it by comparing the state voting results to pre-election polling. If the pre-election polling said D+2 and your final result was R+1, then you have to look at your polls and individual polling firms and determine whether some bias is showing up in the results.

    Is there selection bias or response bias? You might find that a set of polls is randomly wrong, or you might find that they’re consistently wrong, adding 2 or 3 points in the direction of one party but generally tracking with results across time or geography. In that case, you determine a “house effect,” in that either the people that firm is calling or the people who will talk to them lean 2 to 3 points more Democratic than the electorate.

    All of this is explained on the website and it’s kind of a pain to type out on a cellphone while on the toilet.