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Cake day: August 20th, 2023

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  • What will happen: Harris will put in a fine performance, coolly parrying his attacks and laying out a coherent vision for her presidential term. The press will latch onto one thing—perhaps some ambiguity around tax policy or her correcting herself after starting to say the wrong word —and blow it up into existential doubts about the very basis of her campaign. Meanwhile, Trump will ramble semicoherently, spouting disjointed assertions about protecting the border or the children or whatever, segueing into stories about golfing with famous people or immigrants abducting and transing American children, calls for mass executions of bad guys and word salad with no discernible meaning. The media will helpfully gloss over that, pointing out that he “forcefully advocated American interests” and is “in tune with public concerns about security/the economy”. They’ll award it to him, judging that he had regained the initiative and Harris is now on the run, and the 99.9% of the public who didn’t watch the debate themselves will believe that.