How? Something else would have to pull community members away from the fediverse. I don’t know what that would be right now.

Meanwhile, non-federated platforms will enshittify, be bought out by a crazy billionare who wants to ruin everything, or (like has happened with other, older monopolies) be broken up during a dynastic feud. I see some strong parallels to how Linux has outgrown proprietary alternatives over the decades, and arguably it’s even harder for an OS.

That hasn’t been the trend though.