Nuttycombe runs the forecasting site cnalysis.com, and these little-known legislative races are his expertise. While the science of forecasting presidential, gubernatorial, congressional and senatorial races has exploded in recent years, Nuttycombe is one of the only forecasters focused on the 7,383 state legislative districts across the country.

His focus underscores the rising awareness of the importance of state legislatures in US politics. Long overlooked by parties and reporters, there has been a much greater understanding of the consequential power state legislatures have to set policies on issues like abortion, gun rights, education and voting. Just a handful of races in a single chamber can determine which party has control.

“Your state legislature is going to affect your day-to-day life a lot more than Congress is,” Nuttycombe said. “State legislative elections are a million times more important than congressional elections, but I’m obviously biased on that front.”