We call it AI but they are just pattern predictor tools in massive dimensions, one day a real AI will appear and will be ridiculous call these things from the AI era…
The only thing LLMs have contributed so far for me is that with my phone job I no longer have to note accounts. It listens, it writes a summary (90% of the time). So far I’ve been instructed to leave the accounts void of notes regardless unless I feel something super important should be added. So nope, you bought the shit. If it works, great, if not, not my fault. I will take breathes between calls now instead of panic typing notes in 10s between calls. It is kinda cool to see the summaries though. It’s definitely trained on clear English though. It hates foreign dialects and LA and MO southern accents. To be fair though, I barely comprehend 80% of people with Cajun accents, and piece together based on context.
Tech bros would love if LLMs are like crypto. This is like the bazillionth crypto bubble.
Just one more GPT bro, I swear it will bring us AGI bro, please bro please, just one more GPT…
Just fifteen more terawatts bro just thirty million gallons of clean water bro please
I feel like I’m in some bizarro-world situation when people keep saying about how the new model blows everything else out the water. I’ve been hearing it on a near monthly basis for the last 3 years and they’re still shit.
im sad they stole the cool of gnu partition table
In french “GPT” sounds like “I farted”. They stole the cringe as well
And “chat GPT” sounds like you’re admitting to a cat that you farted.
How is that any different than iteration when developing literally anything?
You don’t bet in achieving a pipe dream in the near future when developing something (at least I hope you don’t). The actual AI devs are also rather humble about what can be realistically achieved in the near future if they’re allowed to speak openly, it’s the techbros and investors who’re blowing everything up so phenomenally that the only way for this bubble - which by now is big enough to crash the US economy on its own - to proceed is to achieve the literally impossible, which is General Artificial Intelligence within at least the next 2 to 3 years (they can only pump so much money into it). I haven’t heard a single developer or scientist saying this to even be remotely realistic.
This is more about economics than programming, AI experts and grifters just collect the money as long as the bubble persist. Also has to do with tech-solutionism and latestage capitalism. In the end the science of Machine Learning will prevail (although a lot of devs might need to find other specialisations; perhaps COBOL?), but this economical house of cards will fall apart. Let’s hope it will burry US-neolibertarianism and -fascism under it this time.
Let’s hope it will burry US-neolibertarianism and -fascism under it this time.
there will always be another; capitalism demands it.
Usually people know better than blowing up the hype for one iteration this much and act like it’s the second coming. There will be diminishing returns but instead a stairway to heaven is promised.
It starts to feel like one last attempt to hang on to the old system, and if this fails the house of cards crumbles and China takes the lead in tech.
For most software, iteration starts getting diminishing returns only if it’s approaching feature completeness and no bugs. LLMs are plateauing well before they became super genius job stealers like they were supposed to, and it’s going to take a major breakthrough to see any significant improvement.
I’m not a big market speculator guy. Does anyone know if there is a way to bet against AI, to make money when the AI bubble pops? Not shorting.
It’s hard to think of a company that stands to gain massively from AI collapsing, so I say just put your money in index funds that exclude the “magnificent 7” (Tesla, Nvidia, Microsoft, Google, Apple, Amazon, and Meta) or even put it in foreign country’s index funds.
Perhaps invest in the “wait and see” companies? On the theory that companies that went all-in on ai have now massively disadvantaged themselves in their respective competitive marketplaces.
Put options on NVIDIA? Still has the problem of having to prefict when it’ll pop.
Only if you can predict when it will pop
yup, before shorting anything, remember, “Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.”
Yea, that’s what I figured.
How else would you bet against AI if not by shorting?
I mean I have heard of betting sites having bets on some weird stuff, maybe they offer AI bubble bursts by x date, but I doubt it
That’s why I asked. Shorting would involve betting the bubble will pop in a specific time frame and has no upper end to what I could lose if the bubble doesn’t pop in time. I was asking if there is any other way to bet against them that I didn’t know about. Something without that time frame and/or lower risk.
Yes, investing in non AI companies and avoiding indices which include AI. Lower risk/reward, more passive stance. Shorting is higher risk/reward, active stance against it.
Of course AI is a totally new concept and has never had a market crash before.
The term first appeared in 1984 as the topic of a public debate at the annual meeting of AAAI (then called the “American Association of Artificial Intelligence”).[2] Roger Schank and Marvin Minsky—two leading AI researchers who experienced the “winter” of the 1970s—warned the business community that enthusiasm for AI had spiraled out of control in the 1980s and that disappointment would certainly follow
Makes it even MORE infuriating that all of Silicon Valley and most politicians are deliriously bullish on replacing all creative, journalistic, and investigative (amongst others) work with LLM slop🤦🤬
today i learned, thanks for the info!
RIP lisp machine
Crypto bubbles haven’t even begun to crash. People are gonna keep “investing” their life savings into it and keep being blown away when the orice craters again in a few years
I am currently setting up my investment portfolio and considering putting like 5-10% into crypto etfs, I literally hate crypto, the only reason I would do it is to bet on people being stupid enough and keeping investing into crypto.
It would be literally a bet on the HL Mencken quote
No one in this world, so far as I know […] has ever lost money by underestimating the intelligence of the great masses of the plain people.
There is no investing in crypto; that’s called speculation or gambling.
If you invest in an S&P500 ETF you are betting on the US economy continuing to grow, if you invest in Euro 6xx etf you are betting on Europe to grow,
If you invest in a world ETF like VWCE you are betting on the world economy continuing to grow, it’s still fucking gambling it’s just the playing the odds.
Me investing in a crypto ETF would be me betting that people are stupid enough to keep putting money into it.
Pure speculation on my part:
I wouldn’t be surprised if the crypto and ai bubbles will take each other down. I wonder which order would have the biggest effect; crypto followed by ai or ai followed by cryptoWhat are you talking about? Have you looked at Bitcoin lately? It is over $100k…
Tell me about “craters again” please?
This is a delusional take. Cryptocurrencies are about the only tech right now that gives the common people a fighting chance. Never in history has there been a real competitor to bankers and their monopoly on value.
I hope more people invest their life savings. If they can hold for 5 years, they will be wealthy.
we all know how banks control value and monopolize money. no such thing as regulation, accountability or anything (even if less than ideal). crypto solves all that by uh, u can buy it!
So your financial advice is to sell both your crypto along with any AI stocks you have since the bubble popping for both is imminent… correct?
!remind me 3 years
i have not implied imminent nor to to sell your stocks
Crypto solves it by providing an auditable public ledger following mathematical rules agreed upon by all parties utilizing it. It has a predictable and transparent minting process and transactions are uncensored. Transfers are predictable and rapid. You can see exactly what’s happening when you transfer. It doesn’t stamp generated ids on people, instead the people report their identity to the network.
It doesn’t care how people acquire, so yes, people can use fake centralized money to buy real money if there are sellers willing to do that.
There are many more benefits, but the point is, yes, it solves an enormous number of serious problems, many of which you definitely haven’t considered.
Transfers are predictable and rapid.
And don’t forget how easy it is to reverse them in case of error.
I don’t want some central authority orbiting over my finances capable of reversing something because of “error”. The ability to reverse a transaction means complete surveillance, control, and submission to an authority figure. No thanks.
I would rather be in a society that doesn’t make such foolish errors to begin with, and takes responsibility when they make a mistake. Measure twice, cut once.
Video game crash? What?
it was mostly a yankee thing in the 80s
softwares
\sigh
You know, the free and open source software softwares that all the techbros are putting AI into.
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